Nicholas Kristof, in a January 2025 piece in the New York Times, writes that even in a “messed-up world, many trends are still going right.” He notes that people want “reassurance” and this can be had by “putting grim news in perspective,” i.e., by noting the significant good which is found in the world alongside the real evil.
Kristof begins by pointing to the lives of small children, who now routinely live past childhood and into adulthood. He reports that
2024 appears to have been the year in which the smallest percentage of children died since the dawn of humanity.For most of history, about half of newborns died as children. As recently as 1950, more than one-quarter did. In 2024, the best guess of United Nations statisticians is that an all-time low of 3.6 percent of children died before the age of 5, a bit lower than in 2023 (which set the previous record).
That is still far too many. But the risk of that worst thing happening has dropped by half over the last quarter-century. Just since 2000, more than 80 million children’s lives have been saved.
What will be the quality of life for these many children whose lives have been preserved? Many of them will experience a higher quality of life than their parents and grandparents, as Kristof goes on to explains:
Consider extreme poverty, defined as having less than $2.15 per day, adjusted for inflation. Historically, most human beings lived in extreme poverty, but the share has been plummeting — and in 2024 reached a new low of about 8.5 percent of the world’s people.Another way of looking at it: Every day over the past couple of years, roughly 30,000 people moved out of extreme poverty worldwide. And here’s something to look forward to: This year will probably register even more progress against child deaths and poverty alike.
Not only will the majority of these children escape extreme poverty, but rather they will also receive an education, a benefit which enriches life in many ways.
Of the many skills that a person can acquire, the ability to read and write is one of the strongest predictors for economic success, protection from exploitation, and personal development. Kristof reflects on the advancement of education during his own lifetime:
Education and literacy are the greatest forces empowering human beings, yet when I was a child, a majority of human beings had always been illiterate. Now we’re approaching 90 percent literacy worldwide, and the number of literate people is rising by more than 12 million each year. Every three seconds, another person becomes literate.
As these children reach adulthood, they will receive more healthcare than previous generations. Paradoxically, that means gaining weight in the third world while losing weight in the first world.
As nutrition improves in what is often called the ‘developing world,’ brain development, internal organs, and general health improve with it. Appropriate weight gain during the first few years of life is a predictor of good health for many years afterward.
In the industrialized world, a focus on nutrition and exercise is combating chronic excess body weight.
Both trends are salutary.
Other improvements in healthcare are in the offing. Kristof notes that
Scientists have newly developed the first antipsychotic medication for schizophrenia in decades, and a vaccine against a form of breast cancer may enter Phase 2 trials this year.
One must grieve the loss of life. In Ukraine, in various parts of the Middle East, and in the concentration camps in northwest China. These deaths are shocking and saddening.
Yet in comparison to the twentieth century, the world is becoming a safer place. Between 1900 and 2000, approximately 200 million people died in combat, working out to 50 million people per quarter century. So far, in the first quarter of the twenty-first century, combat deaths have accumulated at a much slower rate.
One need only compare the years of 1900 to 1925 with the years of 2000 to 2025 to quickly and clearly see the improvement.
It is true that this is a broken world, containing significant suffering.
But it is also true, in the words of Ian Drury and the Blockheads, that there are “reasons to be cheerful.”
